Election day in the United States is a bit like a jigsaw puzzle, except that only one piece appears at a time, and you don’t get to look at the picture on the box.
In anticipation of Nov. 5, when Republican candidate Donald Trump will be vying for the presidency against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, we’ve tackled some of the most common questions being asked by Canadians.
When do polls open?
Polling hours on election day vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 5 a.m. ET in some parts of Vermont and at 6 a.m. ET in five more states. All other voting places open between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time, and will be open in all states by noon on Tuesday – except for Oregon, which is a vote-by-mail state and doesn’t have any physical polling stations.
When do polls close in swing states, and when will we start to see early trends coming in?
There are seven “swing states” still too close to call – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina – and early trends shared by elections officials in each state once polls are closed could indicate whether Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump is the frontrunner early on. Both Ms. Harris’s and Mr. Trump’s campaign teams are spending almost all of their time appealing to voters in these seven places and ignoring everywhere else. The airwaves and phone screens in these states are saturated by tens of millions of dollars worth of political advertising.
On election day, polls in different states close at different times, mostly between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time, but they could be extended if governments ask the courts. Here’s when polls are set to close in the seven key battleground states:
- Georgia: 7 p.m. ET
- North Carolina: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Pennsylvania: 8 p.m. ET
- Michigan: 8 p.m. ET (four counties close at 9 p.m. ET)
- Wisconsin: 9 p.m. ET
- Arizona: 9 p.m. ET
- Nevada: 10 p.m. ET (one poll closes at 9 p.m. ET)
In 2020, it took less than 20 minutes for Georgia and North Carolina, the earliest swing states, to report first results, which have historically been almost entirely votes cast by mail in North Carolina, and a mix of mail-in and in-person ballots from early polls and on election day in Georgia. Decisive leads in both early swing states for either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump would likely make that candidate the favourite and significantly narrow their opponent’s path to victory.
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And once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts across the country, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days.
Who is leading in the polls, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Ms. Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump and the Republicans.
Where can you watch the results on cable TV?
All major Canadian news networks will have their own broadcast specials throughout the day.
- CBC News Network begins election coverage at 6 a.m. ET.
- CTV News Channel will deliver hourly election updates beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
- Global News will air a live special starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Below are U.S. news networks with staple election coverage that also broadcast in Canada. Depending on your cable package, you can check out:
- CNN
- MSNBC
- Fox News
- ABC News
Where can you stream election results online?
There are myriad options online to keep up with the election results. Most news networks will stream their election broadcasts on YouTube, if you want to watch Canadian news coverage:
- CBC will stream its TV coverage on the CBC Gem app
- CTV News will have its TV coverage on the broadcaster’s website
- Global News will stream its 9 p.m. special on its website, Global TV app, Pluto TV and Prime Video
How many people are estimated to have voted in advance?
Rules vary between states, but every state allows some form of voting early, whether in-person or by mail. As of Monday, voters across the U.S. have returned a total of 78,726,665 advance ballots in the 2024 general election, more than 49 per cent of the total number of votes cast in 2020. That includes record numbers of early and mail-in votes in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina, including more from registered Republicans, as Mr. Trump has encouraged his supporters to vote early or by mail.
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What is the electoral college?
Presidential elections are not decided by a popular vote in the U.S., nor by tallying up elected representatives of each party to pick who leads, like in Canada. Instead, the country uses a system called the electoral college, where votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president.
Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens. All but two states operate on a winner-takes-all basis, which means whoever wins the popular vote in that state gets all of their electors.
If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets 54 electors from the state. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency.
What are the chances the election could be called on Tuesday night? What could follow in the days after?
More often than not, in a country as evenly divided as the United States, we won’t know who won on election day – or, at the least, not on election day on the East Coast. Since the 36 days it took for George W. Bush’s win in the 2000 presidential race to play out in Florida and before the Supreme Court, only in Barack Obama’s two victories has Associated Press declared a White House winner before midnight Eastern Time. Mr. Trump didn’t win until 2:29 a.m. ET in 2016 and he didn’t lose in 2020 until the Saturday morning after election day – that’s how long it took for Mr. Biden to claim 270 electoral votes by emerging as the clear winner in Pennsylvania.
If Trump wins, how would the two-term rule apply to him? Could he run again, if he loses?
As a rule, a person can serve for only two four-year-terms as president of the United States, according to the 22nd amendment of the U.S. Constitution. So Mr. Trump wins Tuesday’s election, his second term as president will also be his last, having served from 2016-2020 already. To remove this term limit, he would have to amend or defy the Constitution.
If Mr. Trump loses, he could very well choose to run for president again, in 2028. He would of course, have to win the Republican nomination again, or run as an independent candidate.
With reports from The Canadian Press and The Associated Press